This is arguably Europe’s most anticipated match of the season, what many consider to be an early Champions League Final. Real Madrid have had injury problems and Juventus seem like outsiders to a chance at winning the Champions League.

There is a lot of hype around this match as Bayern defeated Barcelona only two seasons ago with a 7-0 aggregate scoreline. Not only that, but Guardiola is returning home to face probably the toughest team he has ever faced in his career to date.

Bayern have had a huge problem with injuries this season with players such as Robben, Ribery, Badstuber and Alaba being out while players like Lewandowski and Martinez are possibly not fully fit to play against Barcelona. Both teams will want the ball, but there will be some questions that need answers.

The likely system match-ups

Where and how will Messi play?

It is extremely difficult to defend properly against Messi because he will change his role throughout the game many times. What role will he play? Wide right winger? False 9? Center forward? The No. 10? Central midfielder? He is truly a unique player who can play all of these roles better than other players – his top rankings in statistics in both goals and assists prove this point.

Barcelona’s attacking tactics against a possible Bayern Lineup with Lahm as a left defender.

Lucho will most likely start him as the right winger, where the group combinations between Messi, Alves, and Rakitic have been a strategic focus for this season’s Barcelona. Rakitic focuses mainly on balancing Messi’s movements –which means he is usually moving out toward the right flank while Messi cuts inside. Rakitic can also make vertical movements if Messi decides to drop deeper. Dani Alves operates between the flank and central midfield and looks to combine with Messi when the Argentine is cutting inside.

The combinations between “Alvessi” are always quite intriguing. Most of the time Messi will begin as the higher and wider player while Alves is the deeper and more central player, and then they combine quickly with one-touch passing while rotating. This focuses the defenders on the forward-moving Brazilian while Messi escapes pressure moving into the center from a deeper area. Alves and Rakitic perform their roles as space-openers and blockers for Messi very well.

When Messi moves inside from the right flank, he has many far-side options for his long-diagonal balls through the defense as we have become accustomed to seeing this season. Neymar makes runs in between the opponent fullback and central defender, Suárez makes an evasive run while also offering himself as a combination possibility, and Alba will attack the space behind the far-side fullback with his pace.

How will Bayern defend against Messi?

So the most likely course of action for the Bavarians? They will probably look to overload Messi’s side of the field on defense – similar to the approaches Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid have had against Barcelona recently. There have even been rumors of Pep using Lahm in an “anti-Messi plan” which could see Lahm play in a special role on the left side of the defense.

Asymmetrical Bayern shape which would look to congest Messi’s side of the field with Lahm as left central midfielder

Bayern could defend in an asymmetrical 4-3-2-1 / 4-3-3 / 4-4-2 like this. This will force the ball toward the left side of Barcelona’s attack – which Bayern can then shift across to and aggressively press.

Possible Bayern movements in the 4-4-2-0 once the ball is switched to Alba

During the high press it will be important to block passing lanes into Messi, and for this reason it is possible we will see a sort of 4-4-2-0 shape where the Bavarian strikers focus largely on the area on Busquets to block any forward passes (with Lewandowski more central and Thiago more toward Messi’s side) while the team collectively pressure, cover, and balance each other in order to remain compact.

Bayern can press Alba’s side with Muller and Lewandowski directly – which is a much more favorable scenario than Messi having the ball, but Ter Stegen’s passing ability could make a huge difference in this sense. Ter Stegen’s long passes are very accurate and would allow Barcelona to expose the open spaces more quickly.

Bayern could also perform a deeper press where the focus would be to isolate Messi with Lahm performing a role on the left side of defense using his intelligence in blocking passing lanes and pressing, which would make him a good candidate for a possible man-marking role. The player roles and positioning can vary obviously, as these are just predictions.

How will Bayern attack Barcelona?

It’s possible that Bayern will look to sit deeper and then hit Barcelona on the counterattack – but this would be quite dangerous as Barcelona are an extremely skilled team that would perform better with more of the ball.

Guardiola’s team will look to dominate possession (and will most likely succeed) and press high up the field as I mentioned earlier. This would be the most effective way to play against Barcelona: force them to defend deeper. It’s possible Barcelona will have its first game in a long time where they have less possession at the Camp Nou.

A possible approach from Pep would be the use of false fullbacks which would provide more direct passing lanes into the wingers and higher stability in transitions while gaining a lot of space quickly – though this will be significantly less effective since Bayern do not have Robben and Ribery on the flanks.

Bayern will likely look to continue focusing on wide combinations in order to penetrate the defense and create chances. This could be more difficult against Barcelona because the defensive focus of Lucho’s men is mostly on the center – meaning the Bavarians could have a harder time moving diagonally inside from the flanks and could end up putting in a lot of high and long crosses – which are terribly inefficient.

Both teams are capable of keeping the ball or countering very well. Where Bayern are more compact defensively, Barcelona are more talented in their counterattacks. Barcelona will counter through Messi, Suárez, and Neymar, which results in extremely quick and dangerous attacks. They all have excellent combinative dribbling and finishing ability and a goal could likely result from a Barcelona counterattack.

Conclusion

There is a lot of room for surprises in this match, which make it a bit more difficult to preview – but this matchup will definitely be exciting. It would be an even more interesting tie if both teams could be fully fit, but that’s football. Guardiola has been forced into some of his most brilliant moments throughout his career due to having injuries in his squad – this could possibly be another moment like that.

Overall, the tie seems slightly in favor of Barcelona at the moment. With Messi in top form and no big injuries in Barcelona’s squad, Lucho’s men look like very strong candidates for a possible treble season (which by the way we at Spielverlagerung mentioned in January after Lucho’s strategical change to move Messi to the right flank). Either way, this “early Champion’s League Final” will be very exciting.

For a preview which includes details of specific roles Lahm could play and variations within the Bayern lineup and attack, you can visit Spielverlagerung (German): http://spielverlagerung.de/2015/05/03/fuenf-fragen-zu-barcelona-gegen-bayern/